Analysis of Early Warning System and Failure of Preventive Diplomacy in 2022 Russia-Ukraine Invasion

This study investigated the factors that accounted for the failure of the early-warning system in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, as well as its influence on peacekeeping diplomacy, human casualties and refugee crisis. It adopted an ex-post facto research design and utilised documentary method to collate secondary data from several international organisations such as the United Nations, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, the European Union and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe. Data were analysed using the content analysis method. Findings reveal that, regardless of the clarity of the early warning indicators, international response was not backed by strong mediation frameworks and enforceable security guarantees. Such was equally the case with Russia’s ultimatum on NATO expansion interpreted by the West. The study therefore recommended the transformation of early warning systems from advisory to mandatory procedures for instant and preventive response, as well as the strengthening of European crisis-response frameworks.