Spatio-Temporal Modelling of Deforestation Hotspots and Vegetation Dynamics on the Mambilla Plateau, Nigeria

This study examined the spatio-temporal dynamics of deforestation and vegetation change on the Mambilla Plateau, Nigeria, using multi-temporal Landsat imagery from 1987, 2004, 2014, and 2024. Geospatial techniques, including land use/land cover classification, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), hotspot analysis, and Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) modelling, were employed to assess vegetation patterns and predict future change. Results show a significant decline in dense forest cover from 56.8% in 1987 to 24.6% in 2024, mainly due to agricultural expansion and settlement growth. NDVI trends revealed a decline in vegetation greenness up to 2014, followed by a modest recovery linked to reforestation and natural regeneration. Hotspot analysis identified concentrated deforestation zones along the Gembu–Serti and Mayo Ndaga corridors, while high-altitude areas remained relatively stable. CA–Markov projections predict an additional 7–10% forest loss by 2034 under a business-as-usual scenario, but possible stabilization with effective management. The study underscores the need for stronger forest protection, community-based management, sustainable agriculture, and continuous geospatial monitoring. These findings provide valuable insights for sustainable land-use planning and climate resilience strategies in Nigeria’s highland ecosystems.